Mineral markets: the trends behind the opportunity

Global gold demand, including over-the-counter activity, reached 5,002.3 tonnes in 2025; central-bank demand was 863.3 tonnes (World Gold Council, Full Year 2025, published January 2026). In its July 2026 outlook, the Council expected investment to remain the main source of demand growth for the rest of the year, with central banks remaining significant buyers (World Gold Council, Q2 2026 outlook).

The same outlook identifies sensitivity to real yields, the US dollar and investment flows, while elevated prices weigh on jewellery volumes (World Gold Council, Q2 2026 outlook). Gold is an established component of Mongolia’s mineral production (USGS, Mongolia mineral industry).

• SXI assessment focus: Grade and recovery, legal rights, seasonality, water, security, refining terms and the ability to operate through a lower-price environment.
• Forecast boundary: The cited July outlook is directional for the remainder of 2026, not a long-term gold-price target.

The Silver Institute’s April 2026 survey reported 2025 industrial demand of 657.4 million ounces and forecast a 2026 total market deficit of 46.3 million ounces (Silver Institute, World Silver Survey 2026). It also forecast a 3% decline in industrial demand in 2026, with photovoltaic demand affected by reduced silver use and substitution (Silver Institute, World Silver Survey 2026).

A forecast deficit is not a guarantee of higher prices. Mongolia has reported silver mine production, but the significance of silver revenue must be established for each asset (USGS, Mongolia mineral industry).

• SXI assessment focus: Whether silver is a primary product or a by-product; payable recovery; concentrate quality; treatment terms; and exposure to the economics of other metals.
• Forecast boundary: Use the April estimate above, not the earlier February 2026 preliminary deficit estimate.

The IEA’s 2025 copper outlook under its Stated Policies Scenario reports total demand of 26.717 million tonnes in 2024 and projects 31.348 million tonnes in 2030 and 34.137 million tonnes in 2040 (IEA, Copper, 2025 edition). These are demand scenarios, not copper-price forecasts or a prediction that all incremental demand must be supplied by newly mined material.

The same IEA table projects secondary supply and reuse increasing from 4.441 million tonnes in 2024 to 8.702 million tonnes in 2040 (IEA, Copper). Mongolia already has substantial copper operations, including the Oyu Tolgoi open-pit and underground complex (Rio Tinto, Oyu Tolgoi).

• SXI assessment focus: Resource confidence, metallurgy, recovery, power, water, treatment charges, impurities and access to buyers.
• Forecast boundary: Growth in total demand is not the same as growth in primary supply requirements; recycling matters.

USGS estimates 2025 world tungsten mine production at 85,000 tonnes of tungsten content, including 67,000 tonnes from China, and records Chinese export controls on selected tungsten items from February 2025 (USGS, Tungsten, February 2026). Mongolia has documented tungsten concentrate production, although this does not establish the quality or scale of an individual project (USGS, Mongolia mineral industry).

Supply concentration provides a reason to evaluate alternative sources. Our commercial outlook is selective: the opportunity depends on producing a qualified, competitive product rather than simply holding a tungsten occurrence.

• SXI assessment focus: Mineralogy, concentrate grade, recovery, impurities, buyer qualification and achievable payment terms.
• Forecast boundary: The cited USGS summary provides supply evidence, not a quantified long-term tungsten demand forecast.

USGS estimates Mongolia’s 2025 fluorspar mine production at 1.5 million tonnes, compared with 1.43 million tonnes in 2024 (USGS, Fluorspar, February 2026). Fluorspar is used in fluorochemicals, steelmaking and other industrial applications, with acid-grade and metallurgical-grade products serving different requirements (USGS, Fluorspar).

Our commercial outlook prioritises product quality and market access over a broad commodity-growth claim. A processing proposal needs evidence that its output can meet the intended buyer’s specifications at a competitive delivered cost.

• SXI assessment focus: CaF₂ grade, impurities, beneficiation performance, water and reagent use, transport and reliable offtake.
• Forecast boundary: The production figures are historical estimates, not a demand forecast; no long-term growth rate is asserted.

The IEA’s Coal 2025 outlook projected global coal demand to be about 3% lower in 2030 than in 2025, with differences between regions and end uses (IEA, Coal 2025 executive summary). Mongolia produces metallurgical and other coal grades, and its mineral exports remain highly dependent on external markets, particularly China (USGS, Mongolia mineral industry).

Coal therefore needs a separate commercial assessment from copper or precious metals. A global total-coal forecast should not be presented as the forecast for a specific Mongolian coking-coal product.

• SXI assessment focus: Coal quality, wash yield, buyer demand, border logistics, delivered costs and the willingness of prospective financiers to fund the activity.
• Forecast boundary: Avoid describing coal as an uncomplicated energy-transition growth opportunity.

The World Nuclear Association’s 2025 fuel report estimated reactor uranium requirements at about 68,920 tonnes of uranium in 2025 and projected just over 150,000 tonnes in 2040 under its Reference Scenario (World Nuclear Association, World Nuclear Fuel Report 2025). These are industry-association scenarios tied to nuclear development, not guaranteed purchases or prices.

Orano’s January 2025 investment agreement with Mongolia is evidence of a further uranium-development pathway, not proof that the project is already at full-scale production (Orano, investment agreement announcement). Uranium is included here for country context, not as a claim that SXI owns or operates a uranium asset.

• SXI assessment perspective: Specialist licensing, environmental safeguards, water, community acceptance, export controls and long development schedules are essential review areas.
• Forecast boundary: Tonnes of uranium are not interchangeable with tonnes of U₃O₈; retain the source’s unit.

Mongolia’s recorded production also includes molybdenum, zinc and iron ore (USGS, Mongolia mineral industry). We assess these as project-specific opportunities, with attention to product specification, processing, buyers and transport rather than an unsupported common growth forecast.

Rare earths and lithium are noted in ADB’s discussion of Mongolia’s critical-mineral potential (ADB, Private Sector Development Plan). Geological potential should not be confused with a declared reserve, proven metallurgy, economic viability or an SXI investment pipeline.

The strongest project case is not “the commodity will rise.” It is an asset with credible technical evidence, a saleable product, realistic costs and a plan that can withstand adverse conditions.

Market forecasts change and should be refreshed regularly. Independent technical, legal, environmental and financial assessments remain necessary for any project decision.